The Real Reason Trump has Blockaded Iranian Ports.

Ok, bear with me. This will take some explaining. 

The media is pecking away at the shallow assessment of the Trump actions with Iran. Basically they are saying he is blockading ports in retaliation at Iran charging a toll for ships to pass though the straight of Hormuz. 

And looked in isolation, that's exactly what it would look like. 

However, if you look globally, things start to piece together. One of Iran's biggest customers for oil is China. China takes over 80% of Iranian oil exports and has been building up war reserves of fuel for a couple of years now. 

Intelligence assessments put a date for China maxing it's reserves and therefore it's capability to invade Taiwan at either late 2026 or some time in 2027. It's reserves of war fuels like diesel were working up to such a high level just prior to that. 

Trump could be blockading Iran with the cover that he is dealing with Iran, but simultaneously he is dealing with the problem of China and Taiwan. With no oil from Iran, China will be forced to use it's reserves to supply it's everyday requirements. It will have to draw down on those war reserves, making an invasion of Taiwan less likely.

Yes, the lack of supply from Iran could force China to jump now and use what reserves it has now to instigate the invasion of Taiwan. But China will be hamstrung, because it won't be able to import more oil to refine and use during the invasion. All it would have are it's reserves and what's in the ships already loaded and bound for China. 

And those ships crossing the Indian Ocean from the Gulf are very vulnerable, just like the Iranian warship that was sunk by an American sub. 25 miles off the coast of Sri Lanka. Did you miss that was a message of intent to China as well? 

The danger with Trump's strategy is that China could just lash out now, but how long could it last? Would it escalate to nukes, or an attack on Diego Garcia? Is this a repeat of Pearl Harbour? Could they, would they supply nukes to Iran to allow them to defend themselves? Not without America knowing. 

Who knows. If the Trump administration plays it smart, it can involve China in talks with the Iranians, to persuade them to negotiate in good faith with the Americans. But being Islamists, in my experience good faith is not something they ever negotiate with

Time will tell if this is a huge bit of 4D chess by the Trump administration, or if it's the precursor to World War 3. Lets hope they know how to play chess eh?

Nukes and Yemen

I've always been fascinated by the collective amnesia regarding the use of nuclear weapons.

For instance, Israel has nukes. Although they don't make a big deal of it, it's common knowledge they have a working nuclear weapon and could if all else fails use it.

So when people are shouting at Israel to be more restrained, they forget Israel are already being restrained by the use of conventional weapons. They could quite easily turn parts of the Gaza strip into glass if they so wished. I'm not sure what stage Israel have got to with their nukes, but the modern variety of nukes are fairly clean with minimal fallout. 

There are even enhanced nuclear weapon varieties like the neutron bomb that are specifically designed to produce a highly deadly dose of radiation without much in the way of blast, so they don't cause damage or create an irradiated wasteland. Maybe you don't nuke your own backyard, which is fair enough. Maybe it's is too small an area to guarantee the effects of the bomb wouldn't be felt outside Gaza.

Which brings me to Yemen. Those Houthi rebels, backed by Iran buggering about throwing missiles at international shipping in the Red Sea.

I'd say they'd be an ideal target to try out a nuke or two. Especially to give Iran a heads-up.

Yes, they are close to Saudi Arabia, but if Saudi received assurances that the bomb or bombs used wouldn't be dirty and cause them an issue, why not nuke a few Yemeni cities as a lesson to their sponsor? Limited airstrikes my arse. A couple of nukes on the coastline where the missiles are located should be an abject lesson in not fucking about.

After all, buggering up global supply chains is not a trivial act. 

Which brings me to George Galloway in a roundabout way. What now for the UK "independent" nuclear deterrent give that it seems the Muslim block vote is gaining ascendency? I did blog many years ago that the number of Muslims entering the country could quite quickly start to tug on the reins of power and put our reliance on America in jeopardy.

George Galloway is a symbol of this power. "This is for Gaza" he said in his acceptance speech, not "I will serve the people of Rochdale".

And only last week we had a chancellor stand up and pledge a million pounds for a war memorial specifically for Muslims killed in the world wars. Again, pandering to the significant Muslim block vote. The power of that vote is now recognised by the government of the UK.

It won't be long before all government decisions are Muslim decisions. After all, if we are pandering to a minority when they are still a minority of 10-20 percent of the country, what happens when they hold a 40 or 50 percent share of the vote? 

What happens then when the Muslims have control of our nuclear deterrent. Will it be used as a deterrent, or will it be used as a stick to beat other nations into submission? After all, the very nature of Islam is Imperialist and expansionist, requiring followers to convert infidels (by force if necessary).

Will America still allow us to use their technology? Will the agreement to allow use Trident and other weapons be withdrawn.?

Because it must be a factor in decision-making across the pond now. How long can the UK be trusted to have that sort of power?

Has anyone else thought about that?

I'm not one for conspiracies......but.....

Okay, so Oil and Gas slump to a pretty low level. Now then, what can the powers at be do to bump the price up a bit... yep, attack Saudi oil fields.

I'm not that well up on Iranian drone capability, but I'm sure there's something a bit too clinical, a bit too accurate about the attack on the Saudi installations. For Iran, anyway.

The one stand-out picture is a picture of three spherical pressure vessels, with all 3 of then with an identical hole.

Now then, strike me a bit surprised as I thought the Iranians didn't have command and control of drones beyond visual range. Not having the satellite communications network capability of the Americans, the best they can do is send off a drone or cruise missile and hope for the best.

Certainly, the missile won't have the pinpoint accuracy we've come to expect of the American systems. Only the Americans have access to the very accurate GPS co-ordinates that provide their weapons with centimetric accuracy over distance. It's actually a strategic resource, limited by design to the US or it's allies, or those using it's own weapons systems. Us mere mortals with our civilian GPS devices get the dumbed-down access with less accuracy. Even though civilian GPS is ok for broad general guidance like autonomous drones and the like, it's still not-weapons-grade accuracy.

The sort of accuracy shown in the pictures coming out of Saudi show a degree of accuracy only available to first-world systems, like those provided by the US, Europe or Russia. If the weapons were provided directly by Russia to attack a US ally... things get very serious indeed. Korea or Cuba level serious.

So, in the middle of a long-term slump in oil prices, we get the most accurate mother of attacks on Saudi oil installations...

Colour me sceptical.

New Middle East Conflict a Certainty

The arrest and detention of certain high-level people in Sudi Arabia should set alarm bells ringing.

The players are aligning and it seems the target of their attention is Iran.

This could be the big one, a massive Middle East conflict, pitching Sunni against Shia.

Each side's proxies are already fighting in Yemen and I know that the Saudis do not tolerate trouble in their neighbourhood. The sactions against Qatar are a classic example of this. When Saudi "Policemen" crossed the causeway into neighbouring Bahrain to quell anti-government protests during the "Arab spring" , that's another example of the Saudi intollerance of any risk on their borders.

Yemen could well be the excuse for Saudi Arabia to move against the Shia side.

The downside is that if Saudi eventually wins, the extreme Wahhabbi version of Islam will become the predominant form.

You know, the sort that exports extremist imams to preach in the Mosques in the UK that they paid for.

If it does kick off and they win, it's not going to be pretty for the Middle East and the rest of the world as they crush Shias in their countries and promote extremist Islam in the rest of the world.

The intriguing part is Israel aligning with Saudi. Are they looking to the longer term where the world is pulled into a conflict against extremist Islam? Do they see that as a game plan to expand their territory in the Middle East by using the rest of the world to eventually crush the Arabs?

World governments should tread very carefully: the way things are aligned at the moment makes things very dangerous.

If the end result is Saudi moving in force into Yemen and crushing the Houthi rebels and it goes no further, the world should breathe a sigh of relief.