Monday, 24 February 2014

Tanks on Wednesday?

So the new polititical reality dawned in Ukraine at the exact same time the Russian leadership were distracted, enjoying a Vodka or two wrapping up the Sochi Winter Olympics.

Now the chill wind is blowing from the East in that Russia is seeing more and more of it's buffer zone turn Westwards. Not to mention a huge swathe of endless flat land. Perfect for the tank battles of WW2 and prime for agricultural development today.

There is a limit to how far we can push and Putin isn't the sort of person you piss off. He won't be taking this lying down. Ukraine is an important strategic ally for Russian, as is Georgia. The EU may find it harder to flip the Ukraine than the less important countries like the Baltic and Balkan states.

So, Sunday Ukraine turns Westward, today we get Russian posturing and in the background military mobilisation. Tuesday forces move up to the border and Wednesday the Pro-Russian provinces in Eastern Ukraine open the border to Russian "peace-keepers".

Sunday, 23 February 2014

Ukraine: Like a Moth to a Flame.

I pity the people of Ukraine: They currently have a choice. But instead of doing their own thing, being independent, they're running headlong towards an autocratic regime, the only difference is which point of the compass they prefer.

Maybe after decades of being part of the USSR its wired into their psyche.

But if they join Russia, they're hostage to a regime that they haven't elected.

If they join the EU, its exactly the same.

The only differences is which particular faction of politicians get rich.