Migrant Watch - The Wind and Waves have dropped

Looks like this weekend will be a good example of the amount of resources utilised to collect the immigrants in the channel.

The wind and waves have dropped to a level where I'm sure we will see a few dozen dinghies over the next few days.

Today the Coastguard aircraft G-HMGD is patrolling the channel, circling over the border Security Command vessels Courageous and Enterprise. 

I see a couple of leisure craft out there as well. Are they involved in the pick-up or is Farage out there again taking pictures?

I think it's only prudent for me to introduce the possible cast of actors, so you get a feeling for what is going on. 

First off aircraft.

I use FlightRadar24 to track the aircraft patrolling the channel. 

The two main aircraft are C-GFMX and C-GFMQ. These are two De Haviland Canada Dash-8 Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance aircraft leased from Pal Aerospace, a Canadian company (hance the Canadian registrations). 

A Dash-8 aircraft is normally used as a regional airliner. So not a small aircraft, or an inexpensive one to run and maintain.

The inital lease cost was £34 million and it is currently running at £2 million a month.

Interestingly they don't always turn on the ADSB data. You make your own mind up why.

When the two Dash-8 aircraft are off task, then coastguard aircraft can be called in to patrol the channel. They don't have the full sensor suite of the ISR aircraft, but they can monitor boats in the channel. 

These are small Diamond DA-62 twin engine aircraft leased from 2Excel Aviation. At least these aircraft usually put up ADSB data so you can see where they came from etc. 

You Have G-HMGD and G-HMGE

Then you have the Beech King Air aircraft operated by the same company on behalf of the government, which are half way between the DA62 and the Dash-8. The King Airs, seem to be based up North.
I've so far only seen them patrol the channel twice in the couple of weeks I've been monitoring them. So it's possible not all the aircraft will come South, but I've put them all down below. 

The aircraft have been seen to have come from as far as Prestwick in Scotland to monitor the English Channel.

Registrations are G-HMGC, G-HMGF, G-HMGG, G-HMGH and G-HMGI

The Coastguard aircraft also usually fly with a flight ID starting in SRD

Now for the surface vessels.

I use Vesselfinder to track them.

On the French side, we have a number of French Warships. Then there are Coastguard vessels. Then their equivalent of the RNLI and finally we have a sprinkling of vessels from other countries like Spain.

The Spanish vessel Duque de Ahumada spent a number of weeks over the summer in the channel.

The main player is the French vessel Abeille Normandie, a coastguard tug. The irony is it is a large vessel that chugs out into the channel at something like 3 knots shadowing the dinghies, but it's a large enough vessel to collect all the immigrants off a dingy in one go and take them back to France. 

Anyway, on the English side of the Channel, we have various RNLI lifeboats from Dover, Ramsgate, New haven, and now Bembridge (if the dinghy comes from Cherbourg).

Then we have the Border Security Command Vessels. The names all start with BSC and then the vessel name, such as BSC Courageous, BSC Enterprise, BSC Ranger, BSC Volunteer, BSC Defender and BSC Contender.

Those are the main players. 

Tommy Robinson and Danny Tommo

Well, yesterday Tommy Robinson was found guilty of harassing journalists that had doxxed him on holiday. 

Sentencing happens later, but given that this is the first time that the establishment has a real chance of putting him away for some time, you can bet he'll get given the full term for his crime.

Similarly Danny Tommo, who hasn't yet had his day in court, you can bet that because he's a senior figure in the Patriot platform organisation, the establishment will throw the book at him, the best lawyers, a protracted case and eventually massive  jail time. 

Both Danny and Tommy are looking at a decade behind bars. 

The establishment are thinking that this is putting a lid on dissidents, that it will stop people speaking out.

However, the establishment are taking a risk. There are some that take the view that if you are going to be arrested just for speaking out, then you might as well go the whole hog and do something worth being arrested for.

Violence against the Police, The establishment, elimination of opposition, elimination of lawyers and judges, demolition of high value assets, racking up not only the political but financial cost of ignoring the dissident voices. That may be what the establishment is facing, or forcing dissidents into doing.. 

It worked for the IRA. While they were limited to creating violence in Ireland, they were constrained and the government of the time could keep the lid on and ignore the voice of the Catholics North of the border.

But once the IRA moved on to serious and seriously expensive targets on the UK mainland, things started to change and the government were forced to negotiate. The big bombs in London and especially around Canary wharf and the city of London caused vast amounts of money in building damage, but that was outclassed by the monetary damage created by the loss of trading (and therefore tax revenue) in the buildings affected. But also the support the USA were giving the IRA financially through personal donations and political pressure helped massively.

It was so bad that commercial vehicles were banned from the city of London or severely restricted. There was a copper in a booth posted on the streets entering the City of London financial district. 

It was disused for a long time. I'm not sure if it still exists, but it's a symbol of the fear that the IRA instilled. 

What I'm betting at is that the government, by going over the top on people that are not a real threat, are creating a real and potent threat in the future. The establishment could just ignore Tommy Robinson and if his grievance wasn't legitimate, his movement would petre out. 

Now, thanks to the publicity around the Danny Tommo arrest and remand without bail, Patriot Platform has grown exponentially. Without a hint of irony, the government accuse PP of creating an army, whilst totally ignoring the vast number of fighting age males arriving in dinghies that are united by a common purpose and look more like an army that the ragtag bunch of blokes wearing black garb and balaclavas.

Interesting times ahead. Will part of  Patriot Platform morph into the Provisional Patriot Platform and start a reign of terror? 

Will we see drone attacks against immigrant importation?

Will we see ton-plus fertiliser bombs back in London?

It's only two people charged arrested and jailed, along with the dozens jailed for tweets. But it's only a matter of time and numbers before the people get the message that ultraviolence is the only way to win.

Migrant Watch - a New Page

I want to keep a record of how many resources are used and how often to support the dinghy crossings of the channel. It gives you an idea of the vast amounts of money and resources being used in the operation in the channel. 

I will be monitoring wave height in the channel, any French, Spanish or Portuguese (Yes, it's not just French) vessels in the channel shadowing the dinghies to the UK border in the channel. UK vessels are trickier to identify because they have a habit of turning off their AIS systems, so you can't see them to track them. 

So for instance:

Tuesday 27/10/2026 Time 12:34 No likelihood of dinghy traffic today due to weather.

Wind 20Knts

Wave Height 8Ft

Border Force Aircraft on station and registration: No 

Coast Guard Aircraft on station, registration and origin: No 

Vessels Attending in the channel.

European:

Abeille Normandie 10 miles off Boulogne. Speed: 14Knts

British:

Dungeness Lifeboat active but not launched.

Newhaven Lifeboat active but not launched.

No likelyhood of dinghy traffic today due to weather.