The Real Reason Trump has Blockaded Iranian Ports.

Ok, bear with me. This will take some explaining. 

The media is pecking away at the shallow assessment of the Trump actions with Iran. Basically they are saying he is blockading ports in retaliation at Iran charging a toll for ships to pass though the straight of Hormuz. 

And looked in isolation, that's exactly what it would look like. 

However, if you look globally, things start to piece together. One of Iran's biggest customers for oil is China. China takes over 80% of Iranian oil exports and has been building up war reserves of fuel for a couple of years now. 

Intelligence assessments put a date for China maxing it's reserves and therefore it's capability to invade Taiwan at either late 2026 or some time in 2027. It's reserves of war fuels like diesel were working up to such a high level just prior to that. 

Trump could be blockading Iran with the cover that he is dealing with Iran, but simultaneously he is dealing with the problem of China and Taiwan. With no oil from Iran, China will be forced to use it's reserves to supply it's everyday requirements. It will have to draw down on those war reserves, making an invasion of Taiwan less likely.

Yes, the lack of supply from Iran could force China to jump now and use what reserves it has now to instigate the invasion of Taiwan. But China will be hamstrung, because it won't be able to import more oil to refine and use during the invasion. All it would have are it's reserves and what's in the ships already loaded and bound for China. 

And those ships crossing the Indian Ocean from the Gulf are very vulnerable, just like the Iranian warship that was sunk by an American sub. 25 miles off the coast of Sri Lanka. Did you miss that was a message of intent to China as well? 

The danger with Trump's strategy is that China could just lash out now, but how long could it last? Would it escalate to nukes, or an attack on Diego Garcia? Is this a repeat of Pearl Harbour? Could they, would they supply nukes to Iran to allow them to defend themselves? Not without America knowing. 

Who knows. If the Trump administration plays it smart, it can involve China in talks with the Iranians, to persuade them to negotiate in good faith with the Americans. But being Islamists, in my experience good faith is not something they ever negotiate with

Time will tell if this is a huge bit of 4D chess by the Trump administration, or if it's the precursor to World War 3. Lets hope they know how to play chess eh?

Europe is an Organised Crime Continent.

I work for a company that imports and exports items all over the world. Since Brexit, it has become very clear that the EU customs process is a very protectionist one, or one that requires a huge investment on the part of the company importing into Europe to comply with all the petty rules. 

For instance when Brexit first started, we had terrible trouble getting items through customs because the address the person used on their order, their "informal" address, didn't exactly match the "formal" address EU customs had on file for that location. 

Many order were rejected and returned until customers inside the EU learned to look up their formal address and use it as the destination. 

But even then, it became so petty: for instance if a comma was missing, or in the wrong place, it was rejected and returned. 

Even up until a couple of months ago, Ireland was especially petty. An order would be arbitrarily returned for no reason, then if resent, would be accepted. It seemed to be just up to the mood of the individual customs officer that looked at the package. That issue seems to have largely been sorted by an addition to the invoice.

Spain was another egregious rejector of packages. Packages were rejected for being illegal to import into Europe, or restricted, or some similar reason. On items that were originally made in Europe and exported to us in the UK. 

I do remember one item being a solid metal gear knob. I'm not sure what they thought it was, considering it was manufactured in Poland, delivered to a company in Germany who then sold it to us in the UK and we then exported it to a customer in Spain. Maybe they thought it was a weapon?

What I'm getting at is the whole process of selling into the EU from outside is a lottery. Brexit has opened my eyes up to the arbitrary nature of EU officialdom and processes. 

There is no "official" process that can be followed which will guarantee the process flows correctly. There is always the upstart officer in customs or an official department policy that wants to penalise UK companies for exiting the EU. 

That's the way it looks, because the process is so arbitrary. If there was an official process that could be followed that guaranteed entry, then it would look less vindictive and less like criminal activity and more like a professional organisation.

But no. We have to join a club, pay dues sign up to agreements, in order to guarantee trade. The alternative is to fall foul of a complex, unregulated, unprofessional system. 

To me it just looks like more organised crime. Do we slip Euros in the document wallet to grease the palms of the customs officer to guarantee importation? 

It does make you wonder.

Spying.

Fuck. Are we doing this? Again? Reeeeaaally?

I assume for comments.

Just ask. It's that simple.

I am approachable. 

Sloppy, so I assume UK-based?