COVID-19: Public Blindness and a Depression on the Way.

Luckily I've been able to stay working during the lockdown. I've been able to go into work and we're able to keep 2 metres or more apart in the office.

We've closed the counter service and the workshop as per government advice (we're all old buggers with underlying health conditions) so we limit contact with others.

The point of this post is to point out how many people are demanding a full pre-COVID service when patently the goalposts have shifted.

Currently we are seeing lower than normal staffing levels across the country at postal and courier depots, parcel volumes are up as more people order online because the shops are closed and they're bored (one customer I talked to took his engine apart.. just because).

Even Amazon are not guaranteeing next day delivery. Things for them have improved slightly as they've recovered staffing levels, but things are still patchy.

So common sense would tell you that deliveries will be delayed. But really, the number of people that ask if parcels will be delivered next day is really, really wearing.

Don't they know there's a pandemic on?

But this blindness to the plight of others, or to the reality of postal services, or the pressures on care homes, or the NHS, garage services and other businesses that are struggling to cope after staff shield in place, or take 2 weeks off to self isolate or do any of the measures to ensure the virus doesn't spread is really staggering. It's like people have lost all common sense, or empathy for others.

This "clap for carers" faux sympathy is bollocks. People are only doing it so they don't look unsympathetic, just like the claps for the dear leader in communist countries, although we don't shoot people that don't clap.

The blindness extends to the financial impact of the lockdown. It's not been mentioned on the media (I assume to prevent a panic) but reality of the future going forward is it's going to make austerity look positively lovely.

We will enter a depression. There is no doubt about it. The government is trying to mitigate the effects on the economy, but the raw fact is the billions being spent now to try and save businesses and protect jobs will need to be paid for. It will add a significant dent in future GDP.

Of course the magic money tree leftists want people to be paid full wages for ever, which is unsustainable. Someone has to pay for it.

With a depression, it's questionable whether public services can survive in the form they were pre-pandemic. Austerity was bad enough at closing libraries and the like (even though council bosses keep awarding themselves ever bigger pay packets).

The post-pandemic world may herald the reboot of public services I've been asking for for the past decade or more. Exactly what should the meagre resources available to national and local government be spent on?

Luxuries like translating documents into a dozen different languages can be the first casualty, as can be the employment of translators. English-only from now on.  Six-figure salaries in public office should be another target. Nobody in public service should be looking to earn more than £100,000. Even half of that is a decent living wage. Any more than that is just an obscenity especially when you're depriving essential services of funds just to pay your inflated salary.

Welcome to the post-pandemic society.

COVID-19: Tinfoil Hat Virus

A good catastrophe always attracts the loons.

On the one hand we have those that say the pandemic was planned, or was a useful tool to reduce liberties, that doctors are deliberately over-reporting the number of deaths and COVID-19 is no more deadly than the flu.

On the other hand the left leaning loons say the government aren't cracking down enough, aren't funding the NHS enough and are under-reporting deaths to make the NHS look better than it "really" is.

Currently the left are making much of the disparity between real-time NHS figures, the ONS figures that come out a couple of weeks later and now we have them, the more complete figures including deaths outside care homes.

First off, THERE IS NO FUCKING CONSPIRACY! Okay, got that?

The real-time daily figures the government give out in the briefings are the numbers of deaths in hospitals that are confirmed as resulting from COVID-19 infection. There are a number of parameters that have to be passed, but the hospital authorities have to be pretty sure that the death is as a direct result of COVID-19 infection. The test results will be in, and the patient will most likely have died from pneumonia as a result of a COVID-19 infection.

See? Lots of hoops to get through before the figure is released. Also the figure fluctuates during the week as causes of death are confirmed, the admins process the information (they may not work weekends so the figures get bumper on Monday and Tuesday). Usually the Thursday/Friday figures are an accurate reflection of where we are on the trend of hospital deaths.

Second, lagging a few weeks after the hospital deaths are the ONS figures. These include numbers of deaths released by the Care Quality Commission on deaths in registered care homes. Those are deaths in care homes that are registered with the CQC and where the doctor has put COVID-19 as the cause of death. These figures are a bit inaccurate because a pensioner in care can die of natural causes, but if they had a cough just before they died, then the doctor is likely to put COVID-19 as the cause of death. The thing to look at with these deaths is to compare with CQC figures for deaths last year and see how many extra deaths there are in registered care compared to "normal" this time last year or the year before.

The third figure is the data for all deaths identified as resulting from COVID-19. This includes deaths in other forms of care like supported living which are not registered with the CQC. This is people dying in their own home and reported as COVID-19 related on the death certificate.

The final figure will not be available for some time and may not be accurate. The total number of deaths in total caused by COVID-19. I say inaccurate because there will be a number of deaths not caused by COVID-19 and reported inaccurately as such. There will also be a number of deaths falsely reported as unrelated to COVID-19. This is because we are not as far as I'm aware testing bodies after death for COVID-19.

I've already reported on the strokes in New York caused by COVID-19. That trend was only spotted after the tests for COVID-19 came in and the stroke victims all tested positive.

Just think of all the people that may sadly drop dead without symptoms that may not be reported as COVID-19 related. Heart attack, stroke, respiratory and bowel issues are caused by the virus and unless doctors are informed of the various symptoms, the true cause of death may be mis-reported.

Unfortunately there's no conspiracy: it's just the virus may kill silently, without symptoms, and without testing every dead body the figures may not ever be accurate.

Something Different: Hybrid Cars.

As someone who is in the industry, I've been looking at what to expect in the future from automotive technology.

Electric cars are fairly straightforward: You charge a big battery, the motor drains the battery and when coasting the motor becomes a generator and the kinetic energy is returned back to the battery under regenerative braking. The only voodoo in an electric car is the efficiency of the motor and combining the regen and hydraulic braking.

The main focus on electric cars is range. Getting more capacity out of the same physical size battery and keeping that range long-term as well as improving efficiency of the electronics and the motor. Minimising the production of waste energy in the form of heat is the key.

Motor efficiency is the holy grail, trying to get the best mileage out of the battery capacity. Modern electronics can be designed with greater or lesser efficiency (see Chinese electric cars for the latter), the way the motors are wound, and how those windings couple magnetically at different speeds is a science all of it's own.

Battery technology is another science where much can be done to improve range, with the main battery technologies well understood. It's getting the formulation of the chemicals right and also maintaining the capacity of the battery over a large number of charge cycles is where the boffins are working.

The most technology goes into hybrid cars of all things. Trying to meld a petrol engine and an electric motor seamlessly requires a lot of effort and technology.

It's a shame that governments have effectively killed off the internal combustion engine, because there's a lot more technology that could be incorporated into a hybrid power train. Hydraulic valves that could be lifted independently of the pistons, so an engine can be turned over matching revs to the motor before the valves are sequenced as normal and the fuel and ignition are started, so the change from motor to petrol power is seamless without wearing out clutches, ultra-low emission engine like the new Mazda skyactive-x or petrol compression ignition engines could clean up the ICE part of the powertrain.

But I guess that manufacturers won't pursue ICE technology much further, given that the future is either battery powered, or Hydrogen fuel cell powered. Already compact hydrogen fuel cell generators are available for off-grid use, it's just getting the hydrogen that is the problem as there aren't many filling stations.

Such a shame. But when you see a hybrid car, just smile and think to yourself: "That's gonna break one day" and it will. Because all those complex electronics will fail. Thanks to the eco-loons, even automotive electronics moved over to eco-friendly solder, with less lead content. The lead keeps the solder flexible and without it the solder becomes brittle and resists vibration less. Oh dear, a bit of a requirement for automotive electronic applications.

The electric car suffers the same to a lesser degree because there's a lot less in the way of electronics to manage the powertrain.

So it's a case of when one of those many thousands of solder joints fails and renders the car helpless, not if.

The future of automotive technology is bright: (for the electronics repair facilities).

COVID-19: Yet Another Bat to Hit The Government With.

It's no wonder government ministers don't give out details to the press any more.

No sooner had Boris issued his thoughts that people can go back to work if possible and sunbathe instead of keeping moving when outside, then the press went into overdrive.

There's no detail, it's dangerous, it's giving mixed messages, it puts the Police in an impossible position, and so the press jump on the minister-bashing waggon.

The details as such are supposed to be released after the PM has signalled the intent. But no, the press have to have a go. Create a drama out of nothing.

I'd love to do one of those press conferences. I have a lovely line in passive-aggressive replies. The "I don't want to insult your intelligence, but..." (the "but" signifying I definitely am about to insult your intelligence, but you asked for it) is always a good starter when you get a rhetorical or idiotic question.

At the COVOD-19 press conferences we get the same questions over and over. I think ministers should just reply "I've already answered that question, do you have another?" Too bad if the journalist missed the previous reply.

That's why people turn to alternative voices on YouTube. I've got more COVID-19 information out of Dr John Campbell the any other source. I've linked to him before, but he deserves another mention and link.

His YouTube beats the media hands down for useful, authoritative information.