COVID-19: Tinfoil Hat Virus

A good catastrophe always attracts the loons.

On the one hand we have those that say the pandemic was planned, or was a useful tool to reduce liberties, that doctors are deliberately over-reporting the number of deaths and COVID-19 is no more deadly than the flu.

On the other hand the left leaning loons say the government aren't cracking down enough, aren't funding the NHS enough and are under-reporting deaths to make the NHS look better than it "really" is.

Currently the left are making much of the disparity between real-time NHS figures, the ONS figures that come out a couple of weeks later and now we have them, the more complete figures including deaths outside care homes.

First off, THERE IS NO FUCKING CONSPIRACY! Okay, got that?

The real-time daily figures the government give out in the briefings are the numbers of deaths in hospitals that are confirmed as resulting from COVID-19 infection. There are a number of parameters that have to be passed, but the hospital authorities have to be pretty sure that the death is as a direct result of COVID-19 infection. The test results will be in, and the patient will most likely have died from pneumonia as a result of a COVID-19 infection.

See? Lots of hoops to get through before the figure is released. Also the figure fluctuates during the week as causes of death are confirmed, the admins process the information (they may not work weekends so the figures get bumper on Monday and Tuesday). Usually the Thursday/Friday figures are an accurate reflection of where we are on the trend of hospital deaths.

Second, lagging a few weeks after the hospital deaths are the ONS figures. These include numbers of deaths released by the Care Quality Commission on deaths in registered care homes. Those are deaths in care homes that are registered with the CQC and where the doctor has put COVID-19 as the cause of death. These figures are a bit inaccurate because a pensioner in care can die of natural causes, but if they had a cough just before they died, then the doctor is likely to put COVID-19 as the cause of death. The thing to look at with these deaths is to compare with CQC figures for deaths last year and see how many extra deaths there are in registered care compared to "normal" this time last year or the year before.

The third figure is the data for all deaths identified as resulting from COVID-19. This includes deaths in other forms of care like supported living which are not registered with the CQC. This is people dying in their own home and reported as COVID-19 related on the death certificate.

The final figure will not be available for some time and may not be accurate. The total number of deaths in total caused by COVID-19. I say inaccurate because there will be a number of deaths not caused by COVID-19 and reported inaccurately as such. There will also be a number of deaths falsely reported as unrelated to COVID-19. This is because we are not as far as I'm aware testing bodies after death for COVID-19.

I've already reported on the strokes in New York caused by COVID-19. That trend was only spotted after the tests for COVID-19 came in and the stroke victims all tested positive.

Just think of all the people that may sadly drop dead without symptoms that may not be reported as COVID-19 related. Heart attack, stroke, respiratory and bowel issues are caused by the virus and unless doctors are informed of the various symptoms, the true cause of death may be mis-reported.

Unfortunately there's no conspiracy: it's just the virus may kill silently, without symptoms, and without testing every dead body the figures may not ever be accurate.