I've listened to the various interviews of Professor David Betz and his theories regarding the risk of Civil War in Western Europe.
People push him for when things will kick off, but as he says, it's an impossibility to accurately predict the future.
But hey, I'll give it a stab.
Before the next election, we will be embroiled in the first serious actions of what will turn out to be the Second Civil war in the UK.
There, I've gone and done it.
My reasonings are severalfold. The number of fighting age illegal, undocumented, unknown immigrant men in the UK outnumbers the totality of the UK Army.
The conduits that traffic people into the UK illegally, also smuggles drugs and guns. It's not reported in the media, but the boats don't stop at night.
The areas where things will kick off have links to historical armed violence.
UK intelligence is fully aware of the boats landing during the dark and their cargoes. Dealing with the landings is a bit of a tricky subject politically. Safe to say that if there was an outright firefight on a beach in the UK between the authorities and gun/drug runners, then there would be an overwhelming call to shut down the border. Also the Police would be massacred. The Army may prevail, but only if special forces are used. Hopefully they're already there on the coast scoping out night-time operations and reporting up the chain.
I'm not sure why Special Forces haven't been deployed already to just make a delivery "disappear" quietly in order to make a point.
Anyhoo, combine those points and we have, in the UK, the real risk there is a fairly well armed force of young Muslim men inside the UK at the moment.
If an even moderately anti-Muslim party gets into power and starts to crack down in any significant way on the boats, the hotel migrants, the Burka, extremist Mosques, you can expect some pushback and for the armed uprising the start from the Muslim side.
Even before the election, if the risk is a party like Reform get in, then the tinderbox that is the UK will start to smoulder. The Muslim extremists won't wait to be pushed around, they have the ability to create mayhem, so they will create mayhem. Before the election, in an effort to sway the result.
Armed conflict ensues.
The other way is a bigger massacre than the Southport stabbings. Maybe a rampage by a dozen guys with knives in a shopping centre. That would then bring the white population out in protest in big numbers. Depending where the tinderbox ignites, tends to inform the ability to escalate.
If the protests start in predominantly Catholic Liverpool, then the families there have ties to Republican groups in Ireland and weapons. If the protests start in Scotland, there are links to the Unionist extremists in Ireland and again, weapons. They know where the Kalashnkovs and FN Rifles are buried.
Armed conflict ensues.
In East Anglia, I can see the Americans getting concerned if the hoardes descend on an American Airbase. And getting active to protect their citizens.
But, I'm convinced we'll see serious actions before the next election. The Muslims aren't going to sit around and wait for Farage to ban the Burka. If they do, and he does, that's just one more provocation that will get them to kick off. Whether Farage has a plan to deal with that, I don't know.
My advice? Be prepared. Make sure your door locks are firm and secure against attack. Have a plan to evacuate. If you are in one of the big cities where there's a large Muslim Presence, move outside it.
The indications are it will happen. Sooner rather than later. Be prepared, be vigilant. Do not be a victim.
If you are a copper, I'm sorry. You will be the first target from both sides and you will not have the resources available to defend yourself. Get a different job.
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