The Real Reason Trump has Blockaded Iranian Ports.

Ok, bear with me. This will take some explaining. 

The media is pecking away at the shallow assessment of the Trump actions with Iran. Basically they are saying he is blockading ports in retaliation at Iran charging a toll for ships to pass though the straight of Hormuz. 

And looked in isolation, that's exactly what it would look like. 

However, if you look globally, things start to piece together. One of Iran's biggest customers for oil is China. China takes over 80% of Iranian oil exports and has been building up war reserves of fuel for a couple of years now. 

Intelligence assessments put a date for China maxing it's reserves and therefore it's capability to invade Taiwan at either late 2026 or some time in 2027. It's reserves of war fuels like diesel were working up to such a high level just prior to that. 

Trump could be blockading Iran with the cover that he is dealing with Iran, but simultaneously he is dealing with the problem of China and Taiwan. With no oil from Iran, China will be forced to use it's reserves to supply it's everyday requirements. It will have to draw down on those war reserves, making an invasion of Taiwan less likely.

Yes, the lack of supply from Iran could force China to jump now and use what reserves it has now to instigate the invasion of Taiwan. But China will be hamstrung, because it won't be able to import more oil to refine and use during the invasion. All it would have are it's reserves and what's in the ships already loaded and bound for China. 

And those ships crossing the Indian Ocean from the Gulf are very vulnerable, just like the Iranian warship that was sunk by an American sub. 25 miles off the coast of Sri Lanka. Did you miss that was a message of intent to China as well? 

The danger with Trump's strategy is that China could just lash out now, but how long could it last? Would it escalate to nukes, or an attack on Diego Garcia? Is this a repeat of Pearl Harbour? Could they, would they supply nukes to Iran to allow them to defend themselves? Not without America knowing. 

Who knows. If the Trump administration plays it smart, it can involve China in talks with the Iranians, to persuade them to negotiate in good faith with the Americans. But being Islamists, in my experience good faith is not something they ever negotiate with

Time will tell if this is a huge bit of 4D chess by the Trump administration, or if it's the precursor to World War 3. Lets hope they know how to play chess eh?