I was up in t'North at the weekend. It being the 2nd anniversary of the passing of my mother. We visited her grave and also did some shopping in Denton.
Talking to friends and relatives, you'd think that Reform would romp away with the seat.
However, I know the Northern voter. They're the sort of person that would vote for a pig in a wig wearing a Red Rosette (cue Angela Rayner jokes).
So things aren't as clear cut as the National polls would suggest.
I do perceive a sense of frustration with Labour and especially the complete inability to move the political pointer to any shade other than red. Most thinking people would vote Reform, just because they are a hail Mary in an attempt to break the Labour monopoly that has allowed corruption to flourish in the North with little or no pushback.
Just look at the lack of enquiry into the rape gangs. Labour councillors have been implicated by various low-level informal enquiries. Councillors that have now gained high office as MPs.
No wonder Labour are reluctant to investigate.
Anyway, I will look with some interest upon the by-election.
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