A Prelude to War?

 No, I'm not talking about Ukraine, although it's a factor. 

I'm actually talking about the Western power (USA & UK) announcing they will be withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. 

When you are preparing for a new action in a new theatre, it's prudent to wrap up operations in what could prove to be a drain on resources. So, the withdrawal announcements could be a prelude to either increasing operations in an existing theatre, or initiating operations in a new theatre.

So, will it be Ukraine or Iran? 

Ukraine gets points for it's immediacy. With troops and artillery already massing on the border between Russia and Ukraine, there is a possibility that the West will reciprocate on their own border with Ukraine too.  I'm not sure the country is worth initiating a World War for though. The Russian action is most likely a prelude to more annexation of Ukrainian territory, rather than an overt takeover of the country. 

But then why would the West put such a high price on Ukraine? NATO is pledging to protect the country even though they are not a member. Only if a NATO member is invaded should the West go to full scale war and risk nuclear strikes.

Iran next. Although the military pressure points to Ukraine, the political pressure certainly weighs towards Iran.  Both Israel and Saudi Arabia would like the Iranian question settled. For too long Iran has been a thorn in the sides of both countries. 

For Israel, the removal of the Iranian regime and the removal of their nuclear ambitions would be a Godsend. Israel doesn't have the military ability to take the entire country on their own. They could possibly take on and win against the Iranian military forces, but an Israeli invasion would trigger a wave of solidarity from the other members of the Muslim world. Israel would not be able to win such a war. They would need a bigger force to do the deed for them. A deed they would be more than willing to pay for.

As would the Saudis. Handsomely. The removal of Iran would crown Saudi Arabia and the de-Facto leader of the world's Muslim population. There would be no-one to challenge them after the removal of Iran. The Saudis have the money to bankroll any such action against Iran and compensate the members of the invading force for any losses. 

The post-invasion regime would need to be worked out because hopefully lessons have been learned from Iraq. The West and Israel would most likely prefer a moderate Muslim regime in place. Saudi would prefer more influence from the fundamentalist side. 

There's no way that Israel would like a "Mega-Saudi" state on their doorstep. They would prefer a meeker, moderate and toothless state.

So, either case for the next war zone has it's merits. I personally would err on the political side winning. Mainly because Western countries would have so much to lose by taking on Russia. If they took on Iran it would be an almost minimal cost as Saudi would be bankrolling it.

The final note is that with the push to reduce oil consumption across the world, Saudi only has so long before it's oil revenue starts to wane. This could be it's last push for glory.

So it's Us Vs the Persians then. Again.