Brexit: No Deal is a Done Deal...

The stars are aligning, the rumours are starting and in what were smoke-filled back rooms (until EU intervention) plans are afoot regarding Brexit.

All the signs now point to there being no deal in place by the end of the Article 50 negotiation period.

I take this hard Brexit approach (and thereby a complete refusal to truly negotiate -on both sides) as a ply to force the UK back towards EU membership.

Effectively the plan seems to be the "No-Deal" scenario will be so horrendous there will be a clamour from voters to end the Article 50 process and go back to the loving busom of the EU.

I'm one of the "Hard" Brexiters: exit from the EU is worth ANY cost to the UK. Regaining control of laws, borders trade and everything else the EU sticks it's money-grubbing fingers into is worth the cost. ANY cost.

I know Dan Hannan would like a more reasoned approach, but where money is involved, the EU loses all reason. If we leave, we remove a huge chunk from the EU budget, leaving Germany as the main contributor. I can imagine the New German government will be putting immense pressure on the EU to get a deal where we still contribute money for access to EU markets. Hence the EU's insistance on sorting out the money first and then sorting out trade deals. How exactly we're supposed to negotiate a bill before we know what services we're paying for.I don't know.

To expand on Mr Juncker's Bar analogy, nobody pays the tab up front before they know what they drinks they are are paying for. £5 a glass for a coke is a bit different than £5 for a JD & coke. You pay your share of the tab up to the point you leave the bar. And no-one pays for drinks that are served after they leave the bar.

It's like Mr Juncker going up to a bar and the barman saying "That'll be 100 Euros..." The very next words out of Mr Junckers words would be "What for, I haven't ordered yet!?"

Not what I put my tick in the box on referendum day for.

Sure, if we get a deal that is worth the money, then fair enough, but paying (for instance) the biggest contribution just to be a member of the club but not on the committee should not be an option.

Out means out, as we were told several times by the remain side during the referendum campaign.

Brext "No Deal" debacle continues.

It seems the knioves are out for chancellor Phillips Hammond over his "revelation" that planes may not be able to fly over or into Europe come the day of Brexit.

Actually not a revellation: he didn't make a statement, but an acceptence to a question put to him.

But EU Referendum has been blogging about this and other minutiae that will clog up the arteries of free trade the day after Brexit. That is, unless the two parties understand the issue and work together on a solution.

As it is, there is no sign from the EU side that there is any will to negotiate. Barnier is hamstrug and following his orders from the EU27 to the letter. He uis refusing to talk trade terms without developing the exit terms and our "exit bill" first. It's all about the money.

We've already in their eyes attained "third country" status and they are happy to dictate terms to us and make us capitulate just like they do with countries in Africa and Asia.

Except we are different than those countries: we do a vast amount of trade with the EU. Yes, thanks to frictionless borders, the trade flows pretty well. They do a lot more trade with us than we do with them. They have more to lose by ignoring the relalities of Brexit.

I can imagine the quese of containers of food spoiling at the docks on the way out of Europe as the beaurocratic border checker hold up the export of trade by making sure the t's are crossed and the i's are dittedwill not be looked on well by the traders within the EU. BMW and Mercedes will not be happy that their cars are held away from their intended market.

Quiet rightly if we symied inbound trade on our side, then that would be an issue for the WTO or some similar body to persue, but I'm talking about the EU itself imposing friction on outbound trade. It could be interesting within the EU as citizens and companies start to protest about export issues.

In the meantime, we'll quite happily replace EU imports from somewhere else in the world, side-stepping the EU. Initially under WTO rules but then under more formal trade agreements.

If the hiatus continues, BMW and Mercedes will simply make the cars for the UK market in non-EU countries and ship them here.

There may be a 6 week period of turmoil because that's how long it takes for containers to move from one side of the world to the other, but by hook or by crook, the trade will flow.

From the EU or not. Their call.

UK Politics in Paralysis

It seems to be dawning on politicians of all sides the enormity of Brexit.

Like a Rabbit caught in the headlights of a 40-tonne lorry our political leaders have found out that at some point they will actually have to govern the country rather than leave it on autopilot and rely on laws that atomatically implement EU dictats.

Stunned into paralysis, there has been lots of well, nothing coming out of the various party conferences. Forget the Lib-Dems, they probably represent 5% of the counrty's voters these days. The word is irrelevant.

Labour's party conference was a swathe of communist whimsy brought to the UK. Like we've just voted to leave the EUSSR, we don't want MORE fucking totalitarianism, nationalisation or any more government.

We want less, more affordable government thank you.

And Labour; ignoring Brexit does not look clever, it just shows you as perplexed by it as the Tories. Go on, just shove it under the carpet. Just like your Anti-Semitic problem.

Which is where we get onto the Tories. Again, consumed by Brexit and with no real leadership to speak of, there was nothing at their conference that merited any confidence in their ability to govern sucessfully.

The housing crisis is approching melt down. The Grenfell Tower fire highlighted the issue in London, but across the country house prices are close to becoming unsustainable.

The Help to Buy Scheme has admittedly helped first time buyers get on the housing ladder, but it has actually made the problem worse by helping to inflate house prices. By helping people buy houses with less deposit, more buyers are available and therefore demand is higher, inflating prices. God know what sort of catastrophe awaits those buyers on minimal deposits and huge house prices.

If interest rates rise (as they are sure to do) we will find huge numbers of people defaulting on mortages and huge numbers of houses lying empty because they will be unaffordable. The first to fall will be those on the HTB scheme, those just about affording to pay off mortgages at 0.5% interest rates. Will they be able to afford interest rates of 2%, 5% or more? There will be no social housing to house these displaced people. We will have vast numbers of homeless families on the streets. Families, not just single people, whole families. Thousands of families.

Just think of the drain on the public finances of that lot, not to mention the disaffection they would have for the ruling classes. A veritable breeding ground for revolutionary and extremist ideology.

Government (of all creeds and colours) needs to get a grip on housing and get a grip now. I understand that whichever party gets in, supplying vast numbers of new houses will be an unpopular move with householders, those in the suburbs and those on the edges of green belt land. In effect Tory voters.

But Labour have a lot to lose if they build lots of houses and start to lower house prices.

There needs to be legislation keeping this new housing stock outside private hands. That way, the housing stock resides with the government and that way the price of the house is immaterial. It doesn't affect private house prices and only affects the rental income of buy-to-let landlords as rents come down. Luckily the buy-to-let market isn't huge enough to be political dynamite and most landlords these days seem to be foreign investors cashing in on high UK rents. i.e. not UK voters.

Anyone that wants to own a house is welcome to buy vastly inflated private housing if they want to, but will not be allowed to buy new social housing stock.

The only downside is sorting out management of this new housing stock. Many councils have sold ALL their social housing to housing associations. The best bet would be to keep the new housing away from councils. Their mis-managment of original council housing caused the crisis back in the Eighties.

No, a new agency needs to be formed with powers over planning etc. so that they can get the job done. They will have a remit to produce AFFORDABLE, LIVEABLE and LONG-LASTING housing.

No tin prefabs or unit-construction knock-ups here. No shoeboxes either. It's criminal how small houses that builders claim to be homes are these days.

These days there is the knowledge, ability and technology to build sustainable, repairable, economic and totally liveable housing, so why not do it?

The Tories started the mess, it's only right they clear it up isn't it?