COVID-19: The Current Expected Scenario.

Okay, here's my take on the outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic with current biosecurity efforts in place.

All this talk of herd immunity is tosh. It's based on totally irrelevant presumptions that once infected the population has immunity and cannot be infected a second time.

So, after the virus has swept through the population that isn't isolated, we can expect around at least 1% to die. If the numbers increase so much that there are no ventilators for those that become extremely sick, then we can expect those percentages to rise exponentially. As high as 30% mortality at the height of the infection for some parts of the community.

Anyway, the majority survive the first wave and everyone in the UK that has had the virus is now beyond the infectious stage.  And I mean everyone.  If there is a virus shedder out in the wild, then infections and re-infections will continue along with deaths, until everyone is not a shedder.

If there is someone out there that is still shedding the virus, then we continue going round and round and people die 1% or more at a time until the population thins out enough that natural separation takes over. People are so thinly spread out that they don't come into contact with each other and the virus self-isolates until people stop shedding.

Let's say we are successful in isolating the virus and there is no-one in the UK that is infectious and in six months time we open the borders. If anyone shedding the virus arrives from abroad, then we get the whole cycle all over again, because there is no herd immunity, that's bollocks. People will catch another bought of the virus.

Then we go through phase 2, another round of closures, isolations and deaths until we get it under control. Again.

Hopefully we learn and keep the borders closed. Until EVERYONE IN THE WORLD is beyond the infectious phase.

Then we can open the borders again.

Otherwise this becomes the global equivalent of the Bubonic Plague: global numbers decrease until we're all isolated enough to stop infecting each other. What global population figures are for that to happen are anyone's guess.

COVID-19: Blind Faith.

Here in the UK, the government has decided to abandon testing of suspected COVID-19 carriers.

It's instead relying on anyone displaying certain symptoms to self-isolate, whether they have the virus or not. Unfortunately if they are displaying symptoms, they have already been spreading the virus for a week or more.

But the lack of testing means the government is blind to the scale of the virus. Without sight of the scale of the virus, without finding carriers and identifying contacts, the government will be unaware of the scale of the pandemic in the UK.

In a situation like this, with a virus like this, the lessez-faire approach will not work. The virus reacts best to a strong and determined response. Those countries that have taken strong action are amongst those that have the lowest infection rates and mortality rates.

Those like Italy that acted to little too late, are amongst the worst affected.

The government should be testing anyone and everyone, so that previously unidentified pockets and carriers of the virus can be identified and isolated.

Yes, we should be ramping up production and purchase of ventilators to guard against the worst case scenario, but the virus is far from endemic. But to avoid a mass breakout of the virus we need to get those previously unidentified pockets identified and under control.

The production of testing kits needs to be ramped up and people need to be tested even though they don't have symptoms. That's the problem with this virus: you can be infected and be infecting others without displaying symptoms.

So the current advice to wait until you are displaying symptoms is wrong-headed. You need to be testing those NOT displaying symptoms.

The CMO Chris Whitty is still hoping that COVID-19 acts like the 'Flu. It doesn't. Waiting for symptoms is too late. Waiting for the end of the typical 'flu season is too late.

I've heard him and other experts talking about herd immunity. There is none. People can be infected and gain no immunity. People get COVID-19 and then can get re-infected.

Here''s the definition of herd immunity:

herd immunity

noun

1. the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination.

   "the level of vaccination needed to achieve herd immunity varies by disease"

The UK health experts are working on a false premise because humans do not display any immunity after infection with COVID-19.  There is no vaccine. It's already been reported that a woman in Japan was infected, then tested negative and then tested positive again a week later, I assume because she was exposed to an active shedder of the virus again.

Expecting the herd to garner some form of immunity after infection is nonsense. We need to work on the premise that unless isolated from the herd, the virus will continue to spread.

We need to do as other countries do and identify and isolate those that are carrying the virus and are infectious. Once they are no longer infectious then as far as we are aware, they are safe to re-enter the community.

The other thing is, if COVID-19 can re-infect individuals and they get no immunity from infection, then a vaccine would be a hard thing to develop. There may never be an effective vaccine.

The government are playing fast and lose with this one. We need to get a grip and get it done soon.

A Poor Response (To COVID-19)

Yesterday the Prime Minister made a statement that I thought was bold and truthful: that people will lose loved one to COVID-19.

He said the only thing we could hope for would be to flatten the infection curve to avoid too many needless deaths of those who fail to get treatment due to patient overload of the NHS.

He's to be commended on being so forthright and truthful.

But the actions of the government don't bear out the severity of the challenge facing us. Currently the action is to avoid economic issues, rather than medical issues.

Social distancing measures should be put in place NOW. All public gatherings over 100 people should be stopped with immediate notice. Schools should allow those families able to look after kids outside of school to remove them from the classroom.

I understand that not all families will have the option, so at least limit the spread by removing children from the schools that can be looked after at home by their families. At least it's a sensible compromise.

Cancel all sporting events and public gatherings. Theatres, cinemas and the like need to be shut down.

Weddings are borderline, possibly give advice that only close family and friends you have regular contact with should attend and the wider circle that you hardly ever have contact with should be politely turned away.

Supermarkets should be limiting the numbers of people walking round the stores. Sensible people that can't use delivery services should be shopping at Tesco and Asda 24Hr stores at midnight or the small hours of the morning.

Public transport should be shut down or at least numbers carried should be limited. No crushing people in like sardines on the Tube. Numbers limited so there is space between people. Those that can work from home should be doing it NOW.

Certainly travel should now be limited to essential travel only.

It's all sensible stuff that will buy us some time.

I'm not heartened by the Chief Medical Officer likening this epidemic to the 'flu. This is not flu.

COVID-19 has the ability to re-infect time and time again. The only measure that can slow it down is to stop people coming into contact with others that are in the process of shedding the virus. Once those shedders stop being infectious, then they are safe and so is the rest of the community at large.

Unless the virus has the ability to re-emerge like Herpes. That is something we don't yet know and can't yet predict. But the best defence is to limit the number of infections. Nor can we predict other infection routes, like sexual contact. That's all for further study, but the thing we do know is it's contracted by contact and it's also airborne.

There need s to be a barrier between EVERYBODY as anyone can be carrying the virus. You need to get the infection rating of each infected person down to as close to 0 as possible.

So the advice should be to limit contact with anyone outside your immediate daily contacts. Be on high alert at work and managers should be prepared to send people home that feel in any way unwell. People should be prepared to self-isolate anyway. They should also be allowed to self-isolate, there should be no pressure on them to go into work.

In general people should be limiting physical contact, keeping at least a metre away from strangers and doing all they can to limit cross-contamination. This is in addition to the washing hands advice, which is okay for a virus that only spreads by contact. COVID-19 is airborne, so keeping distance away from people and avoiding breathing in their breath is the only way to stop it. If you can smell Mr Garlic breath, you're too close.