Friday, 9 June 2017

How the Problem of Polarised Politics caused Election Chaos

Well, the election results are in and it's quite clear Theresa May threw away a substantial majority and ended up with a hung Parliament.

When she called the election, it was hers to lose and lose she did, in spectacular fashion.

There are several aeras where she went wrong. First calling the election in the first place, u-turning after saying that she wouldn't call an election. Had the Conservatives laid the groundwork and said beforehand that having an election around the time the Brexit negotiations came to a head would cause problems, and then called it, there would be less of an issue. Issuing a surprise election in an effort to catch Labour on the hop didn't work. All Labour had to do was promise the Earth in return and substantial numbers of voters would sway their way.

The Tories failed to take the Labour policies to task and ask just where the money was coming from. Another mistake from the May team. They had a chance to demolish the Labour manifesto, but instead chose to keep spouting "strong and stable government" with no substance. Chancellor Phillip Hammond was significantly absent from the election, it was his team's job to go through the Labour manifesto and tear it to shreads. Instead Labour got away scott free and were able to promise the Earth with impunity. I just wonder if the mass exodus SpAds from number 10 and number 11 Downing street mortally wounded the Tories in this area. Or manybe it's a good thing for the future that these useless advisors get replaced for people able to plan a bit more.

The third mistake of team May was to alienate the pensioners. Failing to guarantee the triple lock on pensions, or to explain in detail what would replace it. Failing to be clear on tax rises

Being vague and leaving the electorate to trust the Tories is not a viable plan. People do not trust politicians.

If the Tories knew in advance they were calling an election, then they should have had the time to plan and present a fully costed and detailed manifesto. Instead we got wooly words and the famous "clarification" on the dementia tax. With a fully costed and planned manifesto and campaign, there wouldn't have had to be such a clarification, the details would be in black and white.

In the end the Tory manifesto tended to be all stick and no carrot, which lost them the voters that really wanted to vote for "better the devil you know" Theresa as opposed to "Silly Man" Corbyn. Arrogantly pushing voters away like that is not the way to win elections.

So, too many holes, too vague, no planning, no chancellor, u-turns, clarifications all added to the Tory demise. There was a sense that Theresa waas weak and washy, not strong and stable. It's almost as if they had arrogantly convinced themselves they could win the election without putting the effort in. It lost them a 20 point lead in the polls as the people punished them for yet another trip to the polls they thought was not necessary. 

Ironically there was also no counter to the Labour chant that the Tories benefitted the well-off and did nothing for the ordinary person. Back in the days of Cameron and the Eton elite, the Tories had no defence, but they could have countered it easily this time round but failed to. They could have quite easily pointed to the private education of the Labour front benches, but didn't.

As for ploarisation, it seems this election was an election of polar opposites. Young against old, rich against poor, haves against have-nots, Brexiteers against Remainers. I don't think in my lifetime I've ever seen an election so divided not on party lines, but on other lines.

The younth vote surged for Labour, thanks to social media and kids not remembering the catastrophy Blair and Brown's Labour party left us when they promised us everything we ever wanted.

The Pension vote, normally staunch Conservative, crumbled thanks to the badly thought out Tory policies on triple lock and social care funding.

Labour promised the Moon on a stick to everyone without the Tories pointing out that it will be those self-same people paying for said sticky Moon.

The Tories instead of having a backbone and a sense of convition, went into the election sleepwalking, without a clue. It doesn't bode well for the Brexit negotiations.

This is the worst of all results, with the Tories significantly weaked and a Marxist leadership in the Labour party emboldened by their gains.

Tuesday, 6 June 2017

Diane Abbott, Home Secreatary

Is a phrase we all need to be fearful of.

Not only can she not do numbers, or find her own way off a stage, but it seems she can't read.

I mean, as Shadow Home Sectratary, then you'd think someone would explain what the job of shadow home secretary entains and maybe, just maybe what reports she needs to read. If she's only up to the Peter and Jane books reading-wise,  then someone would brief her on the salient points of the Harris report.

But no, we have yet another car crash interview.

It's clear she's not fit for the post. Cabinet posts, even shadow ones are not for bluffers and piss-takers. They are serious positions and the person in-post should be on top of their bloody game.

It speaks volumes about the calibre of Jeremy Corbyn that he would employ such an incompetent into a senior post.

Maybe she's suddenly been afflicted with Altzheimers? Maybe that explains why she's suddenly been caught too ill to debate with Amber Rudd on Home Office Affairs. Despite looking as hale and healthy as someone her size can be.

I suppose it could be worse, she could be in charge of the nations health...

Thursday, 18 May 2017

Rock, Meet Hard Place......

Well, all the party manifestos are out into the public domain, so time will be taken to read them and eventually come up with the party I would most likely vote for.

The first thing that strikes me is that the tax take is due to rise, whichever party you vote for.

Labour: 1p on income tax to piss more money onto the raging money-bonfire that is the NHS.

Tory: When you get old we'll claw back your hard-earned assets bar the last £100,000.

As for fiscal prudence (remember Gordon Brown... anyone?) that's all gone out of the window.

Labour want to nationalise everything so their union chums can hold the country to ransom again, but won't say how they fonud the multi-billillion pound buy-up. Except we all know they will have to borrow sqillions to do it all. Money our Grandchildren will be paying back. The borrowing rates will be interesting given the foundations of sand created by quantative easing (or increasing the money supply as it was called in the 70's). Cue rampant inflation.

The Tories want to be a bit more circumspect. They make noises that they won't piss money away, but in the end over the past 5 years the national debt has gone up despite cuts in spending. The problem being the institutional overspending and inefficiency in government spending. Without correcting the holes, the money bucket will never be full, no matter how much you pour into it.

On education, Labour want to scrap tuition fees. High on my priority list with a daughter in university...

The Tories want to bring back Grammar Schools. Despite failing my 11-plus I do see a place for Grammar Schools and streaming the most able. I've only ever seen Comprehensive schools supporting the least able. I see nothing wrong with skimming off the top 20 or 30% into Grammars, supplying special schools for those less able and having schools catering for the vast majority. We need high flyers and we need schools able to cater for those that can't learn.

So despite being an over-50 adult with a natural proclivity to vote Tory, do I vote Labour? I mean, at least they'll push the debt downstream...

I haven't mentioned the other parties. Liberals, UKIP and Greens. Despite all the airtime they get, they are pretty irrelevant in this election. Sorry UKIP!