Countdown to Catastrophe?

Well, the clock has counted in 2012 and I just wonder whether it will mark a new era in Western Civilisation.

In my post about recession I blogged about the UK cutting its cloth according to its ranking in the world, but the same goes for the rest of the highly indebted western countries.

I've actually been impressed by how persuasive our political elite have been in conning investors into conning the public that all is rosy even when its most patently not. I thought the whole house of cards would collapse many months ago. I've been predicting it for the past couple of years and somehow the politicians are able to keep extending their credit, more than likely by raising mandatory retirement ages and therefore making us more productive over our lifetimes and therefore able to secure more capital against our future value (just how close does that come to the definition of slavery I wonder?). However in 2011 the cracks started to show, as we saw politicians lose their jobs, as their economies outstripped the cash cows they could milk. Possibly a trend that will continue for 2012.

But just how much longer can the political elite do the smoke and mirrors act and fool investors that all is rosy, when it most obviously isn't? You see, the West is no longer the powerhouse it once was: that mantle has passed to the second and third world countries, who have not exhausted their natural resources or have huge numbers of cheap labour.

The Euro is faltering mainly because it was a flawed political project rather than a sound financial one, but its also faltering because of uncertainty as to whether the richer European countries can afford to keep it running.

The thing is, what happens when eventually the elite lose their grip and we slide into the abyss? Will the German public blame their politicians or the lazy Greeks for the decimation of their economy and will they demand reparation? Will the Chinese sit idly by as their labour costs rise, making them uncompetitive and India starts to utilise its cheap labour force to overtake them? Will the Chinese retaliate by putting the price up of the rare mineral resources they've been buying up around the world? Will the American public stay quiet as they realise China has bought all the rights to the rare minerals required to produce cheap electronic goods and started to increase prices to anyone but Chinese companies?

In past global conflicts, the English-speaking world has been the bastion of stability, prevailing through two world wars. I'm pretty sure this time around we have neither the resources nor the will to win that we once had. Did I say global conflict? Well, global politicians have been deluding themselves and the public for so long, the consequences have now outstripped mere local issues.

Its interesting that the safest place globally would seem to be South America, as their various bankruptcies have already done the bulk of financial realignment for those countries, plus their various mineral resources are starting to come into play.

Our leaders are too busy attempting to prop up the past rather than planning for the future, making any realignment of power all the more drastic and dangerous.

At some point over the next couple of days I'll review my predictions for 2011, see how I did and make some  new ones for 2012.

Happy New Year Everyone.

Recession: Did it Ever Go Away?

The BBC trumpets that recession is to return to Europe, but in all honesty with a growth figure in tiny fractions of one percent did we ever leave recession? After all the positive growth figures bandied about over the past two years are so low that negative growth (i.e. recession) is not that far away.

Of course its politically expedient to err on the high side and tip the figures just ever so slightly positive, which for the statisticians technically keeps us out of recession.

But has any of us felt or will feel in future the benefit of growth measured in fractions of a percent? Not really.

For the pedants out there I know that growth went slightly over 1% in Q2 of 2010, but that was the only time since Q1 2008 it climbed that high. In fact in Q4 of the same year growth went negative, but luckily it bounced back to a wondrous 0.4 percent the next quarter, thus avoiding the technical definition of a recession.


And boy aren't those of us in retail feeling every rise and dip... In fact the ONS growth figures match virtually quarter for quarter the retail trading conditions we've seen over the past couple of years.

UK in Global Chart Slump

The UK economy has now dropped to 7th in the world after being overtaken by Brazil.

Another of the things I've been banging on about is the UK actually taking notice of their place in the world and cutting their cloth accordingly. Our economy is on the way down and we need to plan our finances on that future prospect and plan forward, not hanging on to the glory of the past.

In the end, if we continue expenditure at the same rate as before, all we end up with is a lot of debt and a shrinking economy unable to pay it off. A bit like the scenario we're already in, in fact.

Time to face reality and time once and for all for the UK to reinvent itself.