Syria: Be Careful What You Wish For...

I hear plenty of people crowing about the fall of the Asaad regime in Syria. Don't be too hasty.

First off, it's not clear which of the many anti-Asaad factions will win the overall conflict and take control of Syria. It's pretty clear the pro-Asaad factions are failing, but there are about a dozen different factions controlled by different paymasters and ideologies that it's not yet clear who will win.

One of the anti-Asaad factions is ISIS. If they win the overall game, then the West is in for yet another Middle-Eastern shitshow.

Another is a remnant of Al-Kaeda, called HKS. And I hear on the news there is talk of lifting the proscription on HKS because they may take power. FFS! No! 

If the Iran-backed factions like Hezbollah take control, then we face another similar shit-show with Israel facing the only option of taking Syrian territory to protect itself. Yet another reason for the U.N. to throw sanctions at Israel, yet if they do take territory, it will help stabilise the Middle East.

The best of the bunch may be the ex-Asaad forces that rebelled against him and started fighting against him. Sadly, the spectre of the Muslim Brotherhood stalks these forces if they get in power. But at least they may not be as radically anti-West as the more extreme fundamentalist forces. I use "May" optimistically, but I don't know about them to comment on what the end game would be for the ex-Asaad forces. 

Lets be clear, the fall of Asaad is not a good thing. As bad as he was, being a dictator like he was is the only way to keep the peace in a Muslim country. Look at what has happened in the Middle-East since Sadam Hussein and Gadhafi were neutralised. Chaos. 

One glint of light in the distance is Russia. The Naval and Air bases they have in Syria (the only bases they have with direct access to the Mediterranean) are currently under threat. The main reason the Asaad regime fell is Russia's inability to support it with weapons and expertise. Russia is expending too much blood and treasure in Ukraine. 

Now would be a good time to approach Putin for a ceasefire and peace deal in Ukraine, so he can then concentrate on saving his Mediterranean bases. That way he can claim an honourable reason for the retreat from Ukraine.

You scratch my back, I scratch yours, sort of thing. Maybe a caveat with the deal would be that Ukraine stays out of  NATO as long as Russia helps a mutually-agreed preferred faction in Syria that is favourable to both sides. In the end both countries becoming neutral between the superpowers.

That would be the best outcome, but right now the Biden regime would fuck it up. Hopefully Trump the deal maker has seen the opportunity and his team have started making the approach to Putin.

Unfortunately I've not mentioned the Kurds. The homeless Kurds on the Syrian/Turkish border will I assume be left out (again) from any support and peace deal. The Kurds seem to be the forgotten fighters, supported by no-one and oppressed on all side by Turkey and the Asaad regime.