Nicola Bulley: More Police Incompetence?

 The disappearance of Nicola Bulley has baffled experts and the Police alike.

It seems pretty clear that on the day of her disappearance the Police had a fixed idea of what happened to her: that she'd fallen in the river and drowned. 

They didn't it appears consider any other possibility, so unfortunately vital evidence may have been destroyed in the days following her disappearance as the Police failed to explore other avenues.

For instance, looking at news footage, the area around where her phone was left was not secured for any great length of time, so forensic examination could not be done after it was proven she wasn't in the river. Vital evidence may have been destroyed.

Secondary to that, searches for evidence in the wider area were not done, so for instance if she had been taken across the river by an abductor, evidence around what I've heard is a disused house may also have been destroyed.

What I'm saying is that thanks to the Police being closed to other scenarios, they instantly focussed on the river to the exclusion of everything else and now it's extremely difficult to track back and find any new evidence that may rule out the river drowning theory.

Looking at the area via Google maps, it appears that there are very few routes from the field where a car can be parked for a while, let alone where an abducted person could be dragged to without being seen.

If she hasn't simply walked out of the area and has been abducted against her will, then whoever did that would have required some premeditation and a fair degree of planning. Which is interesting in itself, because then one has to ask the question: Why her? Was she the actual target, or was someone just waiting for a victim - any victim to present themselves?  

A camera at a local caravan site that supposedly overlooked the field was frustratingly out of action on that day, so does that presuppose the abductor knew about the camera and the opportunity of an abduction without detection? So who knew about the broken camera?

Interestingly, the Caravan park upstream of the field called Rowanwater has a lake. I do hope the lake has been checked and hasn't been ignored in preference to the river. An opportunist could snatch her, take her to cover, do whatever they wanted and then dump her in the lake. 

The best option would be to take her upstream, not downstream. Downstream takes her into the town, with more chance of detection and there is a weir to contend with as well. Which reminds me: the area below the weir is quite shallow, so if she drowned, the body would have to be pushed by the flow over the weir (unlikely) and then somehow be guided along the slightly deeper channels and not end up on a sandbank.

I did have a discussion several years ago with a girl in Yorkshire. Basically a scenario where she either wanted to disappear or was abducted from her town which had a small river running through it and then transported by canoe downstream to a boat which could then take her anywhere in the country via the river and canal network. (She lived in a town where the River Derwent flowed through). So if Nicola was taken downstream below the weir to a waiting canoe, then taken further downstream, they would have had to go through the town, past the pub, under the bridge carrying the main road, then further downstream, past buildings and caravan sites. Not impossible to do that and not be seen on a cold winter's day in a sparsely populated area I grant you. But there is a chance of detection, unless you disguise yourself as a fisherman.

The river below St Michael's is tidal, so the banks are heaped up higher then the land to prevent flooding and the banks are quite steep. Even though there are places to park a car downstream, dragging a person or a canoe over the bank is quite a task. Further downstream where the river widens and the banks become shallower would be an option, but that's a long way from St Michael's to go upstream unless you use the early morning tide.

Next there is upstream. There are a few limited opportunities to move upstream from the dog-walking field. You do have to walk past the Caravan site (the downside being there's a fence in the way), but this time of year the chances of detection are low and of course the cameras weren't working. So that's a possibility. 

Past the caravan park there are a number of smallholdings, which provide cover. So again a possibility, but the chances of being seen are fair. Not good, because on a murky cold  winter's day, the area is not particularly busy. 

However, if a vehicle was parked in any of those smallholdings, it would have been noticed, unless it was some form of farm vehicle like an old Landrover.

So, not down stream, not upstream. What about across the river? Well, the river is according to the divers on the news around 12ft deep at that point. So not easy to cross without a boat. Across from the Rowanwater caravan park is the River Brock. a small stream really, more of a drainage channel. It runs from the Wyre through farmland. I don't think that's viable route because there are no roads near it and usually channels like that have plenty of barbed wire across them as landowners consider the brook as their property.

However, across from the dog walking area I believe from reports there is a disused house. If that's the large house I can see on Google maps, then that's an option. The immediate bank is not sheltered or covered though, so detection might be an issue, although down around the weir there is enough cover. But again, getting a struggling person into a boat, across a river and then up another bank is a bit of a tough call. 

I did think there was an option of crossing the river, then meeting a car at the car park next to the school (the only car park where a strange car could be located without arousing suspicion). There is enough cover (just) to manage that on your own, but not with a struggling victim.

The most likely scenarios are she walked away on her own, or voluntarily with someone else, or she was taken to cover, then dumped in the lake or possibly under one of the caravans in the immediate area.

There's an outside chance she was taken to a boat or canoe just below the weir and then floated out on the outgoing tide. But then there's deciding where a vehicle could park near the tidal river. If I was a guessing man, I'd say the Shard Bridge where the tidal river widens and there is plenty of cover and a shallow bank. But then there are several caravan sites along the way where an abductor could be spotted. 

Or optionally, there is a small beach by the dog-walking field. Could she have been snatched, taken to the boat, transported a way downstream and then across the river to the opposite bank once there was enough cover? It's plausible given the river is lower than the field so can't be seen from the field, but at one point it goes awfully close to the path round the field where the bench is where the phone was found. Detection at that point is high unless you are sure there is no-one on the path. And also there is a corresponding easy route out of the river on the opposing bank.

Finally I still can't get my head around how someone could disappear during a teams call. According to reports she was on the call whilst she disappeared. So how does that happen? 

A final, final thought would be that maybe she was abducted by more than one person. One doing the catch and then meeting another driving a car.

A very strange case indeed.