Thursday 19 July 2018

Revelation Time: What I think Theresa May Thinks Brexit actually means.

I've said here and elsewhere a lot of words about the Chequers proposal and how it doesn't deliver Brexit. But in a moment of revelation I think I know what Theresa May is thinking in her dealings with the EU over Brexit.

And I've come to the conclusion it isn't Brexit.

She's using the referendum vote as a bargaining chip to reform the EU itself and therefore allow us to stay within the EU. There is no other explaination as to how she thinks the Chequers proposal is an exit from the EU in any way, shape or from.

It can only be the explaination, because last Sunday she said the Chequers deal was one of two options. Chequers or staying in the EU. There was no fully out option in her mind.

I think she has deluded herself into thinking she is Margaret Thatcher Mk2, that she can go to the EU and demand concessions and refom the EU from within, to make it more acceptable to UK pallettes. By leveraging the threat to leave and remove our budget contribution or partially leave and reduce the money flow she thinks the EU will roll over and play ball. But the EU ain't like that. They will bend for a while, but then snap back later once they have an agreement.

She thinks she can use the referendum to go one better than David Cameron and force the whole EU to capitulate and change fundamental policy. She thinks she can get concessions on immigration, payments, and all the other things that previous PMs have failed to extract from the EU.

That I think is her plan in a nutshell: gain concessions from the EU and stay in a reformed EU, or just stay in without concessions.

She's renegotiating the terms of being inside the EU, rather than negotiating our exit.

Brexit it ain't. Not by a long chalk.

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