Somethings afoot in the Middle East.

While our eyes are turned to Japan's problems, it seems there are things afoot in the Middle East.

The Saudis have invaded Bahrain. I say invaded, because I'm pretty sure they're there without the consent of the majority of the population. They've been asked into the country by the Bahraini elite to "secure installations". Not that Bahrain has much in the way of  "installations" to secure. More likely they've been asked in to suppress the population, a lot like what happened when Russia moved into Afghanistan.

You see, unreported by the media there have been several riots in various towns and cities across Bahrain. There have been several protests by the most unlikely of groups. I have a sister-in-law living in Bahrain, so I hear exactly whats been going on. Things have been ugly at times and it seems the protests have not diminished despite the lack of reporting by the MSM.

So now the Saudis have trundled across the causeway that links the two countries like the Russians crossing the river into Afghanistan. Except the Saudis have lots of oil money with which to buy up-to-date military hardware from the UK amongst others. The Saudis don't have a good record when it comes to freedom of speech and the right to protest with their own people, let alone people from another country. I expect this tale will end badly for the protesters. Not that our government or media is interested in the plight of people requesting democracy and free speech because it suits them not to. The Saudis don't want an unstable nation possibly sliding into democracy and thereby setting a dangerous example to their own citizens or on their doorstep nor do they want an Islamic fundamentalist state like Iran there too. So the troops trundle across the causeway and we stay silent, because Saudi money props up our economy. We can't so much as squeak in protest because they have us by the balls.

By supplying arms to Saudi Arabia, indirectly we're sanctioning the supression of the Bahraini population, the exact opposite of whats happening in Libya, where we're openly spouting rhetoric stirring up the rebels against the incumbent government. I assume its because Gadaffi didn't buy arms off us or something, because why else would we call for a war against them? Yes, war. Because if we get our way and get the U.N. to sanction a no-fly zone, we'll be bombing the Gadaffi air and ground forces in a very war-like manner.

But I don't expect things to start and finish with an air war. The West has wanted Gadaffi out for a long time, so I fully expect something more substantial to be forthcoming once we have air supremacy. The things I'm hearing don't contradict that theory at all. A war cannot be won and regimes cannot be toppled (and those oil wells can't be wrestled from the clutches of a mad dictator) from the air alone: boots on the ground count. Those boots might just get a dusting of Libyan sand pretty soon.

However, timing is everything and speed is of utmost importance. We have a very short window of opportunity to act before the rebellion is crushed and we have no-one to support. Expect things to be set up very swiftly indeed.

UPDATE:

Seems there is a race on: can Gadaffi crush the rebellion entirely before the rest of the world mobilises against him?

It seems the timescale is mere weeks and I doubt governments can move that fast. I had heard rumours of orders to be ready once a U.N. sanctioned go-ahead had been secured, but was concerned that the timescale mentioned wasn't sufficiently quick enough. The plan I heard of the other night would have had the rebellion mopped up way before we were ready (typical MOD/Government planning).

Since then, I've heard William Hague speaking this evening on not requiring a UN resolution to go in and "protect" the ordinary people from the Gadaffi government forces. Echoes of Tony Blair's excursion into Iraq.

Anyway, although I've not heard anything yet, I assume plans have been moved forward in order to get troops into Libya very soon, possibly half the original timescale. So it could be we see troops in Libya in the next 2-5 weeks.