In this report, British Military wargamers are reported to have wargamed an attack on the UK by Russian missiles.
It didn't look good.
I blogged about this months ago.
Not since the Bloodhound of the 50s/60s have we had a dedicated, fixed Surface-To-Air missile defence system in place. The MOD decided the Navy could take over the role of air defence and initially it looks like a good idea: station a couple of air defence Destroyers around the UK coast and their umbrella of protection should extend over most of the UK.
But then there's the fact that we reduced the number of advanced air defence destroyers over time. We now have six Type 45 destroyers in total. One each would be deployed to support the aircraft carriers, so we're down to four. Then at least one, maybe two would be in dry dock for refit. So that's two Type 45s available to protect the UK which renders them unable to protect Royal Navy assets.
What about other Royal Navy air defence assets? What are the Army using?
We could rely on the Type 23 Frigates, the newest of which were built over 20 years ago. And we only have eight in service. The Type 23 does not major in the anti-air role.
The Sea Ceptor missiles used on the Royal Navy ships have a land-based version called unimaginatively "Land-Ceptor".
The Sea Ceptor and Land Ceptor missiles are not designed to intercept ballistic missiles. So really, they are only of use against cruise missiles and aircraft.
So it's back to the Type 45s and their Sea Viper/Aster 30 missiles that do have the capability to intercept ballistic missiles.. The Type 45 carries up to 48 missiles in a vertical rack. The Aster missiles used in the Sea Viper have two types, the 15 and the 30. The numbers refer to the range of the missiles. The maximum range of the Aster 30 is 85 miles.
The Type 45 carries a mix of the long and short range versions. The actual mix would vary. But let's just concentrate on the range issue for now, because that's not really an issue: range is.
The Aster 30s range of 85 miles certainly isn't enough to cover the whole of the UK. So what do you cover with only two assets able to intercept ballistic missiles? The main asset to protect would be the Nuclear Sub base in Scotland. The second Type 45? Do you deploy that to protect London, or another military asset like a Naval Base, or an Air Base?
The clear take away from this, is that the UK is not prepared for an attack.
In the report it says that the UK has geared up for conventional wars far away, where the adversary can't attack the UK directly. I said at the time that was nonsense.
I did a wargame back in the Gulf war days, where I envisioned the enemy driving a boat loaded with Scud missiles to a remote estuary in the UK and grounding it on an isolated mudflat somewhere. Once the vessel has grounded, it would provide a stable platform to erect the Scud launchers. The ship's missiles could then attack anywhere within 180 miles.
From the Thames estuary the ship could attack London, and with enough missiles it could also attack the Logistics depot at Bicester, the Military Port at Marchwood, the Transport Airbase at Brize Norton alongside any number of cities within that 180 mile range in the UK and other targets in Europe.
My idea for an improvised attack was that the UK intelligence assets would be able to identify and intercept any ship sailing from (say) Iraq, or Libya or any number of adversary countries and it would be dealt with before it ever got to UK shores.
My assertion that UK anti-air defences should not be scrapped was dismissed. My idea that even a lesser adversary could use unconventional means to launch a ballistic missile attack was dismissed. Of course back then, Russia was not supposed to be an issue, they were dealt with by the Mutual Assured Destruction policy.
This Parliamentary Defence Briefing Overview states that the UK doesn't have a defence against ballistic missiles. It includes some irrelevant guff about being part of a NATO defence network. Relying on someone else for ballistic missile defence is just another indicator of the cost cutting mentality in the MOD and a justification for stripping our armed forces of the ability to protect it's own civilians. If ever there was a primary role for the Army, Air Force and Navy, that would be it. And they are all failing..
Well, here we are. Totally unprepared for an air attack. We only have a handful of Typhoons operational at any one time able to mount a defence against Bombers launching stand-off missiles. A couple of Typhoons are not a defence against 20 bombers. They simply don't have enough missiles tucked under their wings to dealt with that size of threat.
We only have a handful of ships able to mount an air picket against bombers and only two able to defend against ballistic missiles.
We have land-based assets that can defend against conventional air attacks like aircraft, cruise missiles, etc. But we do not have a land-based anti-ballistic missile capability.
I hope, but very much doubt that the military would take notice of the wargame they did. Even with conventional warheads, anyone launching ballistic missiles at us could severely cripple our military capability. we have reduced and reduced the number of assets under the mantra of force multiplication and multi-role capability, to a point there are not enough assets.
We have reduced the number of bases inside the UK where there is no duplication or reserve capability, the same for equipment, where we've reduced the number of individual units to the point where we cannot cover all requirements. Force multiplication and fulfilling multiple roles does not allow an asset to be in two places at once.
And we have totally neglected to invest in land-based assets that can deal with ballistic missiles.
In effect we're relying on enemies not to attack us, which is not a viable military plan at all.