Thursday, 3 November 2011

There's a Mess, Then There's a Right Royal Mess.

The Greek/French/German/Italian Euro problem has escalated to the level of lunacy. How Papandreou can say on the one hand he wants to give the Greek people a referendum on the Bailout (upon which depends their continued membership and possibly existence of the Eurozone), and on the other hand says the referendum won't be about whether Greece stays in or leaves the Eurozone astounds me.

If the Greeks voted not to accept the bailout measures, then there will be no bailout; without a bailout, Greece will default; if they default, they will have to leave the Euro zone; if Greece leaves the Euro zone, then the other weak countries will come under pressure; if they all come under pressure, the Germans won't be able to bail them all out; when that happens, the Euro collapses.

Like a string of dominoes toppling, one follows the other to the inevitable collapse. I'm not sure that the members of the Euro zone can wait until Greece's referendum: the markets might already be moving to force their hand.

Severe losses across the board might galvanise EU governments to adopt a different plan. The Euro might be too expensive a luxury for them, or at least Greece's membership will be.

The next week is critical. It may be Europe won't be the same afterwards.

2 comments:

  1. Seems there isn't to be a referendum after all...just a vote of no confidence. This really is popcorn time (although I loathe popcorn) and is providing as much entertainment as "climategate".

    Even the German media have started to ask for a referendum on whether the German taxpayer should pay any more money to shore up Greece. This is getting more interesting by the day. Meanwhile, it seems, Cameron wants to give more money we haven't got to the IMF...err to shore up Greece. You really could not make this stuff up.

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  2. Maybe there will be a "European Spring", much like the Arab one.

    I doubt it as the political elite here are far more determined to avoid the people of Europe taking back power.

    But one can hope.

    As for Cameron, his "We're out of the Euro so it doesn't affect us/in Europe not ruled by Europe" mantra is wearing a bit thin.

    We are obliged to prop up the Euro just by being in Europe and being a member of the ECB and IMF. Both are shovelling billions into bottomless holes around Europe at a phenomenal rate. But of course the Euro crisis will cost us nothing.

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