Sunday, 20 March 2011

The West Jumps into Libya With Size Nines.

Well, as I predicted the no-fly zone was imposed and virtually overnight was implemented. With all this indecent haste, there is one thing missing: an exit strategy.

From media reports one can be mistaken for thinking that we lob a few bombs at Gadaffi's tanks, he fucks off outta dodge and Libya suddenly becomes a haven of peace, tranquility and love towards the western governments.

Unfortunately, in the tribal land that is North Africa and the Middle East, it isn't that simple, as we found to our cost (in lives and money) in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The problem is, right now the rebels, made up by many separate factions are united in a single cause, against a single enemy: the Gadaffi regime. However, once Gadaffi exits stage left, there's no comedy villain to hate, nobody to hiss and boo at. So who then becomes the star of the stage? Every single faction will want the lions share of the action and power and just as in Iraq, once the war is won, the peace will prove hard to establish. Once more the various tribes and factions will start to settle old scores and vie for power. It will descend into tribal infighting, with many ordinary Libyan citizens losing their lives.

So are we really doing the best by the people of Libya? I'm pretty sure we're doing the best by the corporate entities that want a slice of Libya's oil reserves who just want someone in power they can do stable business with, but I get the feeling that the people of Libya: the reason we're lobbing bombs at Gadaffi will not be best served by our incursions into their country and are only a secondary consideration despite the rhetoric.

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