Wednesday, 2 December 2009

Climate Gate: Time to Take Stock

Ok, its been a while since the release of the emails and data from UEA, so what exactly has happened since?

Well, a review has been comissioned to investigate the leak. Its a pity theres so far no investigation to review the methods used at UEA CRU, but it may come in time. The one glimmer is that Phil Jones, one of the senior figures in the emails and director of the CRU has stepped down while the investigation takes place. Maybe wiser heads can prevail there while he's away and procedures put into place to ensure proper scientific processes are put in place. We've had a few mentions on U.S. TV shows, but nothing much over here.

As for the wider world, what else has happened? Well, it seems every new day since the leak has had a new climate factoid released, or a celebrity spouting climate bollocks, or something in the news to keep the warmist agenda firmly in the minds of the public. Not much has been heard in the mainstream media of the leak, or the opposing view.

Whats my take on things? Well, I'm sure by now you'll know that I'm firmly in the "Man Made Global Warming is bollocks" camp. This is an explaination why:

The real drivers in the weather aren't gases, but the sun and water vapour. Gases have a minimal impact on weather. Sure, the sun can heat up the air and it takes on a brownian motion, giving rise to thermals, but air without water vapour isn't a terrifically energetic medium. However, add water vapour into the mix and you can get some of THE most violent weather systems, because all the water vapour adds mass to the air. It also reacts with the heat from the sun in a more volatile way than a gas on its own. Physical and thermal weather effects are magnified several times by the presence of water vapour. Clouds cool the atmosphere, cloud dynamics move hot and cold atmosphere around, water in the form of snow at the poles reflects light, clouds distribute moisture and drop it on Cumbria, causing floods. Water in the oceans can store heat and CO2, it can move heat around the globe. Water is cool stuff and on a quantum level is pretty fascinating.

Now you can see that the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere has risen in recent years and consequently our weather patterns have changed, at the fringes becoming more energetic and wetter, which accounts for some of the unprecedented weather events we've seen in the past decade. Anyone who has flown through a storm cloud will testify to the power of water vapour.

Do I think that man made CO2 is to blame? No.

Do you want to know why? Its because also in this past decade, the Sun has also undergone unprecedented events. The Sun is by far the most powerful driver of weather on this planet and the amount of energy it imparts into our atmosphere is several magnitudes higher than anything man made CO2 can achieve. I'm quite sure that Solar weather is driectly linked to Terrestrial weather. In fact CERN have a project called CLOUD, which is trying to replicate what happens when energetic particles from the Sun interact with our upper atmosphere. Our knowledge about how the world works grows every day and I'm sure we will get a better understanding one day.

The Sun has a normal 11 year sunspot cycle. Except this last cycle has been different in a number of ways and the new cycle has been late in coming, in fact its been delayed for just over 2 years. Which correspondingly in my rough mental estimate, is the sort of time we've been having pretty serious floods around the country. To me, its a pretty established fact that the Sun is the main energetic driver of this planet in all sorts of ways and for scientists to start spouting on a minimal increase in CO2 caused by man is going to cause global doom is to be frank, quite arrogant.

This is just a natural cycle and all that we as humans can do is adapt to it. Just like our forefathers did back in the Ice Age and back in the Medieval Warm Period. In the Ice Age, humans adapted and lived in the snow and ice. In the Medieval Warm Period, Vikings exploited Greenland for farming.

I'm no climatologist, no scientist, all I can go on is my empirical data. But those that know me know when I have a hunch, when I see a system or process in action, I'm pretty much on the money when it comes to diagnosis.

Five years on from now I'm pretty sure things will get back to normal and we'll be debating what all this panic was all about.

Finally, for anyone wanting me to provide proof for my theory, tough, I'm not going to release it. My raw data was lost years ago (my memory is limited to only remembering significant events like snow in June and drought in 1976, or hurricane winds in 1979 and 1987), anyhow it stays mine and ( to paraphrase the MMGW scientists) I won't share it with anyone. Won't, Won't, Won't.

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