Saturday, 27 June 2009

The end of Triple A

Currently the UK is rated "Triple AAA" for its debt worthyness. I can't see that being the case in September.

If you wonder why, its because there's a battle about to start.

Parliament (and by that I mean Labour, Conservative and Lib-Dems) are all working to the same end: propping up the status quo until Ireland votes yes on the Lisbon Treaty in October, thereby denying UK voters any chance of a referendum of their own.

On the other hand, theres an array of speculators ready to cause mayhem, because mayhem in the money markets means earning lots of money for the savvy investor.

The run on the Pound during John Major's government (Black Wednesday) which caused us to drop out of the ERM was manufactured by speculators that saw a weak currency pegged to an artificial, politically-motivated target and knew that the government would throw billions into the money markets in an attempt to prop the pound up.

Its possible the same trap is about to be sprung now. The government have set an artificial political target and are currently borrowing tens of billions a month in order to maintain it. All it will take is a few sales of Sterling here, a few calls there, a guilt auction failure and we'll lose our triple-A rating and the value of the pound will plummet. The added bonus as far as the money-men is concerned that such a run on the pound could trigger a general election which will see the Conservatives in power.

When better to spring the trap than when the government thinks its in the bag and gets complacent? Sometime mid-late in September would be my guess. Although I'd relish a run on the pound on the anniversary of Black Wednesday. It would send such a strong message.

Anyway, get the popcorn in for early Autumn.

I thought I'd add this bit:

Yes, I know, yet another hint from me of an early election. I know I called it for the summer, but the spineless bastards in government let me down. You don't want to know how close Gordon Brown really came to losing his job, because it will make you cry. Government ministers like Hazel Blears don't quit their jobs and criticise the PM unless they're sure of their position. In the end lack of a spine and promises of EU and upper house positions for the key players won a reprieve for Gordo. Literally with minutes to go before the plot to get rid of him was about to be hatched. Bastards.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.