Wednesday, 20 May 2009

Looks Like We're Getting our Election

According to Guido, we're on for a late summer/early autumn election, thanks to Nick Brown slipping up and letting all and sundry know via his Twitter account.

I did blog back in December/January on the comments in Nick Robinson's blog that by this summer Gordon Brown will be forced out of office and/or we'll have an election by the summer. Looks as though I was right! Pity I didn't put a bet on it.

Actually I just added a comment about that on Nick's blog, but the moderators removed it. I guess they don't want anyone looking a better political pundit than he is....

UPDATE:

I just looked at my old Yahoo 360 blog, on December 16th last year I wrote:

"Hedge Funds and other scams... and a spring election.
It seems that Bernard Madoff didn't follow the first rule of pyramid schemes: get out early while the books look good.
Instead I suppose like all those that have a had got a taste for the top job, his ego wouldn't let him slip away into obscurity. Well, he has notoriety in bucketloads now, I hope he's enjoying the limelight wherever he is.

Which brings me onto hedge funds. It won't suprise you to hear that I hear rumours that others are about to be exposed and those that look okay will go belly up due to investors running scared and pulling the plug.

The first half of 2009 will be rough sailing. 2008 was a precursor to the headlong slide into depression we face next year. Yes, I said DEPRESSION. This will go far further than a mere recession, mainly because we down't have the ability as a nation to pull ourselves out of the downward spiral. We don't make things we can sell. The small number of companies that actually do are foreign owned, so will either ship profits abroad, or as I suspect will happen, ship the whole company abroad to cheaper labour markets. Keep an eye on major industries like Cars and Steel.

So, there will be severe financial and social turmoil in 2009. Lots of job losses, more banks going to the wall, growing pensions black holes, lots more financial irregularities exposed. Whats that in the title about an election you ask?

Well, given the sort of abyssal economic plummet we'll see in the first half of 2009, I predict if Gordon Brown is still in office by August, I'd be very suprised. I expect he'll face a vote of no confidence by then. It may well be we get an election called by then as GB tries to get some sort of mandate for his financial tinkering.

Another prediction: if 2009 is bad, 2010 will be the biggie: it will be an historic year.

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Tuesday December 16, 2008 - 12:28am (GMT)"
Okay, the speaker took the rap and got the vote of no confidence, but not a bad guess for 6 months ago.

Why do I think 2010 will be so pivotal? Because a few months after the election, the new government will get clear sight of the extent of the financial hole this country is in. Not only that, but the extent that external forces run our country. It will have to go public and as a country we will need to take drastic measures to survive. At that point, I really think the public will have had enough of the current status quo and take it upon themselves to establish a new order. Old Holborn will have to wait just a few months longer to see his wish come true.

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